Just found, not that it was particualrly hard, a poll tracker that the BBC have put together showing opinion poll results for the three major parties dating back to the Thatcher era.
The most recent YouGov poll (8 Jan) shows the Conservatives 12 points ahead of Labour on 42%, while Populus (12 Jan) has them at 41% and the Reds on 28%. The Lib Dems have failed to make any significant gain in the past few years with only a brief ICM poll rating them at three points above Labour at 25% on 31 May 2009.
The Tories have held the lead since towards the end of 2008 across all pollsters but Labour’s decline can be charted back to 2003, at the beginning of the Iraq war.
In these dark days when the weather is the staple of news programming, politics bowls a corker to match Dale Steyn’s ball that took out Kevin Pietersen, lbw, in Cape Town earlier today.
And just as the fall of KP may signal the end for England’s hopes of victory in the Third Test so might this leadership challenge severely weaken Labour’s chances in the next general election.
Former cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia “Che” Hewitt have caused a bit of a ruckus, to say the least, with their letter to Labour MPs calling for a secret ballot with regard to Mr Brown’s leadership.
Hoon and Hewitt share an in-joke
Hoon and Hewitt, dubbed the new Castro and Guevara, signalled their intent in the letter, which Mr Brown became aware of only this morning, calling to resolve the “uncertainty” which they believe is “damaging our ability to set out our strong case to the electorate”.
If it wasn’t before today, this latest unrest will do nothing to stabilise the party nor inspire public confidence in its ability to govern. While it may not yet be a case of “they think it’s all over…” the damage has already been done, whether a secret ballot is held or not.
“This is not an attempted coup.”
Patricia Hewitt on BBC Radio 4’s World at One
Insistent that it was not an attempt to see Brown deposed, both Hoon and Hewitt will have expected to have received much support from their “deeply divided” party. Such backing has not been forthcoming. Margaret Beckett offered the most damning put-down: “This kind of thing is diversionary, it’s stupid and I hope nobody will pay any attention to it at all.”
Such a move was unprecedented, according to the BBC’s Nick Robinson, who wrote: “Don’t believe Labour MPs and ministers who say they’ve not talked about changing leader. For months the talk’s been of little else.”
Early indicators are that the cabinet is behind Brown, albeit only publicly. Should one minister resign, or Brown lose their backing, it could spell the end for the unelected leader.
Will Gordon I survive til the morrow? All we know for now is the spirit of the Roundheads lingers menacingly around No.10 this day.
All this talk of kings is making me nauseous. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has refused to be drawn on whether his party is already in talks over a deal to form a coalition government should the next general election result in a hung parliament.
“I’m not the king-maker”
Nick Clegg on BBC’s Today programme
While trying, albeit rather dramatically, to reassure us that our democracy is recovering from the recent outbreak of hand-in-piggybank disease, Mr Clegg was adamant that the people should be allowed to speak first before any “backroom deals” are made. Of course backroom deals are fine afterwards, but before? Gosh no, what would the public think then?
It does seem though that as we approach the election at seemingly ever greater speed, Mr Clegg and his band of plucky dreamers may have to make some crucial decisions. Not least upon which ship to board while the tide is in. Even the possibility of a hung parliament will have got the yellow brigade excited because in that event they would be the only winners.
Hurrah! Should you need further proof that American culture has permeated British society, look no further than today’s announcement of a live televised debate by all three, yes three, of our top politicians.
The BBC’s Nick Robinson has labelled it the political equivalent of X Factor. More likely Brown prefers American Idol and Cameron Britain’s Got Talent (although he strikes me as a Rage Against the Machine fan). What next? The jungle perhaps?
Poised: Battle lines have been drawn
The leaders have agreed to three separate debates, one on ITV, one on BBC and one on Sky. This is very good news indeed and will in fact make history for British democracy although whether the viewing figures can reach the heights of the X Factor, which peaked at 19 million viewers during its live finale, remains to be seen.
The only reasonable guage of the public’s appetite for politics this year has been the infamous Question Time with Nick Griffin, which pulled in around 8 million.
So forget Pacquiao v Mayweather, Haye v Klitschko and even Aston Villa v Tottenham (in the race for 4th that is), this is one match-up you don’t need to have Sky for. Oh how we live in exciting times.
“At this festive season of the year, Mr. Scrooge,” said the gentleman, taking up a pen, “it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the Poor and Destitute, who suffer greatly at the present time. Many thousands are in want of common necessaries; hundreds of thousands are in want of common comforts, sir.”
“Are there no prisons?” asked Scrooge.
“Plenty of prisons,” said the gentleman, laying down the pen again.
“And the Union workhouses?” demanded Scrooge. “Are they still in operation?”
“They are. Still,” returned the gentleman, “I wish I could say they were not.”
Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol, 1843
This passage serves as an abject reminder of the plight of the homeless, but also of some of the attitudes towards it.
It certainly did when Richard Edwards, Chief Executive of the Huggard Centre, Cardiff’s only open access centre for the homeless, read it aloud before the start of its annual sleep-out.
The event, which was to raise awareness for the Huggard Centre’s work with people who would otherwise be sleeping rough on the streets, was well attended and highly successful, raising £1526 just through the collection tins on the night.
And while homelessness seems to be an issue which gains sharper focus in the wider consciousness as the cold nights of winter set in, for some who find themselves homeless it can be hard to escape.
Simon Bray, 42, from north London, has been homeless since 16 and came to Cardiff after a relationship breakdown a few years ago. Homelessness for him has been a life-long problem.
“I’ve got a serious problem with it. I’m 42 and I’m still having the same problems I was having 25 years ago.
“I’m a good person and I try hard in life but every now and again I hit a brick wall and I will just fall through the holes and I end up homeless.
Since becoming homeless Simon has been in and out of hostels and private rented accommodation both in London and Cardiff, and has struggled to maintain employment.
“I’ve had jobs, I’ve had good jobs, I’m a grafter but I can’t keep it up, do you know what I mean?”
“What happens with me is because I’m not from Wales, I come into Cardiff and I may be sleeping in doorways. Or you go to Tresillian House and they can put you on floor space but they don’t always have room for everybody so that means you have to go and start sleeping out.”
Rough sleepers are only part of the problem with an issues as complex as homelessness, but they are perhaps the most visible.
Cardiff Council’s Rough Sleeper Count, carried out during a single 24-hour period on 24 September 2009, identified 26 rough sleepers in the capital, the same figure as the two previous years.
Compared to other urban areas in Wales, such as Wrexham and Swansea, 26 is a considerable number. In fact, comparing that figure to the government data on England and Cardiff has the highest numbers of rough sleepers across England and Wales outside of London.
Of course these statistics are highly unreliable as they neither give a continuous representation of rough sleepers throughout the year nor take into account those who are in temporary accommodation like the Huggard. The Welsh Assembly Government scrapped the requirement on local authorities to conduct an annual rough sleeper count after 2008 and have since issued guidance on continuous measurements.
The reasons for people sleeping rough are varied, Simon explained. There may not be enough space in the hostels, some do not want help and some, like Simon himself, have no local links to Cardiff.
Due to a change in the law, under the Homelessness Act 2002, local authorities could take several factors into account in deciding on priorities for housing allocations. Section 16 (2A)(c) states that one of these factors is “any local connection which exists between a person and the authority’s district”.
This means people like Simon and others are considered lower priorities on the housing list. The front line homelessness services like the council-run Tresillian House, the Huggard Centre and the Salvation Army Outreach Bus do provide shelter for these people if there is space.
Jan Thomas, a Key Worker at the Huggard, said: “We still offer shelter to people from out of the area. At the moment we have a number of Eastern Europeans accessing our floor space. They’ve got no recourse to public funds but obviously we are not going to leave them outside if we have space inside.”
The problem of course is that with space being so limited - the Huggard Centre has 20 bedrooms for people who are residents and floor space for around 14 or 15 more – influxes of homeless people from other areas cause the overflow onto the streets.
Jan believes this is because Cardiff has more in the way of front line services. She said: “Cardiff compares favourably with places like some of the valley areas. Caerphilly, Newport and places like that. We get a lot of people from those areas coming to Cardiff because they cannot access any services in their area.”
Simon (right): "Every now and then I hit a brick wall"
London, too, is a less comfortable place to be homeless according to Simon. He said: “It’s a bigger problem in London. There’s more people, a lot more people, up there on the streets and for me personally I just find it better here in Cardiff. It’s too overcrowded in London. It’s hard to get help up there.”
While Cardiff might score highly on front line services, it seems the problem is hard to eradicate. Jeremy Thomas, head of the Council’s Housing Options Project (HOPs) which deals specifically with people aged 16-21, acknowledged this.
He said: “Cardiff in general is very proactive in terms of homelessness. It’s never enough but there’s lots of provision.”
HOPs, in dealing with highly vulnerable 16-21 year-olds, is highly effective and it’s family mediation services are particularly successful in keeping young people off the streets. Latest figures for the period June to September this year suggest 52.2% of young people returned or remained at home with ongoing support.
For Simon, though, it is too late for family mediation. He just needs somewhere to settle down. Currently staying at the YMCA in Cardiff, he has at least got a roof over his head for the time being but as is clear from his story, everything is temporary when you are without a home.
“I’ve drifted back to London but I keep coming back to Cardiff because Cardiff is where I want to stay. I’m trying to make my roots here do you know what I mean? Just trying to settle here now.”
Forget Copenhagen, today Chancellor Darling will announce his Pre-budget report to Parliament.
Darling took out his detailed sketches of the apocalypse
Here’s what he might say. And apparently what he should say. Follow the tremendously exciting and very important Pre-budget report live these various esteemed websites:
Following yesterday’s government announcement of a clampdown on political jargon, Conservative leader David Cameron today decided to pick his own fight with bureaucracy.
Health and safety begins at home for Cameron
He opened a new frontier in his war against “big government”, targeting health and safety legislation. In what looks likely to become a bitter and hard-fought conflict, Cameron also widened his attack to include the claims culture in Britain today.
In a Churchill-esque speech to the Policy Exchange think-tank, Cameron established himself as a champion for civil liberties:
“When children are made to wear goggles by their head teacher to play conkers. When trainee hairdressers are not allowed scissors in the classroom. When office workers are banned from moving a chair without expert supervision.
It is clear that what began as a noble intention to protect people from harm has mutated into a stultifying blanket of bureaucracy, suspicion and fear that has saturated our country, covering the actions of millions of individuals as they go about their daily lives.”
David Cameron
He has been accused of “retelling myths” by Ruth Doyle, of the Institution of Occupational Health and Safety but, although this would not be the first time war has been declared based on erroneous information, this pre-emptive attack maybe a popular move.
Political jargon has, for too long, stood in the way of effective governance. It is time for the front-line (civil) service men and women to unite and storm the impenetrable lexicon of public administration.
MPs said sketch writers “perform a public service by skewering the most egregious linguistic excesses”
BBC News
This latest annoucement resembles a great victory for the Plain English Campaign, who began their fight against gobbledygook when Thatcher rose to prominence. Commentators point to fears of a civil war (of words), with the ancient cleavage between the Royalists (Queen’s English) and the Roundheads (Plain English) inflamed by this proclamation.
A diversion from the usual topic of this blog here but I thought compelled to wade into the debate started by my fellow Cardiff trainee journalist Josh Pettitt regarding the top sporting icons of the noughties.
I’ve plumped for a pugilist who has had a lot of publicity lately after victories against Ricky Hatton and Miguel Angel Cotto. Manny Pacquaio.
I’ll say only a few words about him because it only requires a few words and a video of his highlights to display why this guy is an icon not just of modern boxing but of all sport.
Ridiculous hand speed, a diamond chin, a tightened defence since working with legend Freddie Roach and an unprecedented ability to carry his power up through no less than seven weight divisions, from flyweight up to welterweight. He has become the complete fighter.
His fame has only really risen to icon proportions in the last few years, particularly after his demolition of British favourite Ricky Hatton. Here is the painful lesson in full:
He has taken on all the big names of recent boxing history including Marco Antonio Barrera and Oscar De La Hoya and beaten them. And who can forget the classic series of fights against Erik Morales. He may have three losses but there is no denying he is one of the best fighters of this generation, and a shining light among a sport that is not what it used to be.
His latest triumph, against Cotto, sealed his place in boxing folklore for years to come and looks likely to have set up a super fight with Floyd ‘Pretty Boy’ Mayweather which will have all boxing fans, avid or otherwise, salivating from all sorts of places.
Oh and did I mention he’s a musician, actor and politician? Enough said. Beat that Lance.
With the Queen’s Speech this past week announcing Labour’s last major opportunity to cling to power and claim Mr Brown is capable of delivering on old promises, the UK entered into the long preamble before a hotly-anticipated general election.
Cameron Vs Brown: The irrespressible force and the immovable object?
That’s right I said hotly-anticipated. Forget that Obama nonsense, we’re gonna show them just how to throw a democratic party. Right?
Well sadly probably not. As Daniel Finkelstein suggests in The Times, who cares?
“It was my first proper introduction to what has become one of my rules in understanding politics. Most people, most of the time, aren’t following.”
This is not a new phenomenon. Nor, indeed, is it the “dirty secret of politics”, as Mr Finkelstein says. Public ignorance, as it is called in academia, has been rife for decades, perhaps even since the birth of democracy in Athens. It is a major problem but it has always been a facet of “government by the people”. In fact, much of my dissertation’s argument hinged upon it.
So why only now has the political malaise become so tangible and we realise our democracy may not be as healthy as we declare it to be?
I was fortunate enough to attend a lecture with former political editor of the Evening Standard, Charles Reiss. He knows the game inside out and gave an incredibly interesting lecture on political spin and reporting.
He showed figures of declining voter turnouts, floored trust levels in politicians, and sadly journalists as well, and answered, when asked, that the tendency toward the middle of the spectrum by British political parties was not the main factor behind the apathy.
Gordon reveals the special move he hopes will beat Cameron
He was then asked, not by me, what his opinion was on the announcement of Herman Van Rompuy as President of the EU. He spoke of a democratic deficit in the European Union. I asked him if, with falling voter turnouts and an as yet unelected Prime Minister, there was a democratic deficit in the UK. No was the gist of his answer, although it was a non-committal no.
“Emotionally I want to say yes but intellectually I don’t think so.”
Only time will tell whether the scandal which enveloped all politicians earlier this year will lead to a greater level of engagement in the run up to the general election. According to the latest Ipsos Mori poll, though, we could be in for a tight race. Indeed, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s reaction was to announce, somewhat boldly considering his position, that the election will not be a “shoo-in”.
For those who are following, one would certainly hope not. Where’s Don King when you need him?
